Post by columbusgm on Jul 31, 2011 19:43:49 GMT -7
So as we know, there's only 1 NHL race left right now. 8th in the west is undecided, with 7 teams potentially finishing in that spot. However, Dallas and Edmonton would need to get an almost perfect finish combined with a terrible finish for the other 5 teams, so I'll ignore them.
Van - 7 GR, 72 pts (max 86)
Pho - 9 GR, 68 pts (max 86)
Cbs - 9 GR, 67 pts (max 85)
Nas - 6 GR, 66 pts (max 78)
LA - 8 GR, 62 pts (max 78)
The remaining games:
Van - @min, Dal, Ana, @ana, @pho, Pho, Edm
Pho - Ana, SJ, @sj, Chi, Cgy, Van, @la, @van, @col
Cbs - @stl, Col, Ott, @pit, Edm, @nj, Col, Buf, @chi
Nas - Ott, LA, Min, @dal, Col, @stl
LA - Edm, Nyi, @min, SJ, Pho, @sj, @ana
So the big games are likely April 2nd (Van @ Pho), and April 5th (Pho @ Van). It's too early to really analyse this, but within 2 sims the picture should be much clearer.
However, it's worth pointing out some other games. The top teams in the RHL right now are Stl, Buf, Atl, Cgy, NYI and Col. They all have more than 67.5% winning percentage. St. Louis hosts Nashville and Columbus, Buffalo travels to Columbus, Calgary goes to Phoenix, NYI goes to LA, and Colorado has 4 games - 1 at Nashville, 2 at Columbus and they host Phoenix once.
So against the top 6 teams, Columbus has 4 games, Nashville 2, Phoenix 2, Los Angeles 1, and Vancouver none. This could suggest Vancouver has the edge in games left, while Columbus (*gulp*) could have some difficulties.
Let's look at the two with the best chances. Vancouver's games look easier on paper. Minnesota (593), Dallas (393), Anaheim x2 (607), Phoenix x2 (466), Edmonton (399). Three relatively tough games, 2 relatively easy ones, and 2 key ones. This is part of why I think the games against Phoenix are so central to this playoff race. It could really decide who makes the playoffs, and who doesn't.
Phoenix's games are a bit tougher. Anaheim (607), San Jose x2 (635), Chicago (616), Calgary (696), Vancouver x2 (480), Los Angeles (419), Colorado (678). All of those games are tough, with 6 against playoff teams and 3 against teams in the hunt. The game against Los Angeles looks relatively easy, but the 2 against Vancouver will be tough, despite the low-ish winning percentage.
I guess I should look at my own games too, since I'm close. They seem all over the board though...St. Louis (730), Colorado x2 (678), Ottawa (486), Pittsburgh (365), Edmonton (399), New Jersey (419), Buffalo (713) and Chicago (616). So 2 games against 2 of the leagues 3 best, with 2 more against the 6th best, plus 10th best Chicago. But then, Pittsburgh, Edmonton, New Jersey and Ottawa are all below 500.
If we assume that all 3 teams somehow manage to go with the odds - losing to the teams above 600, beating teams under 500 and losing in OT/SHO against the teams from 500 to 600..oh, and we'll say Vancouver-Phoenix split their 2 games - then we end up with this finish:
Vancouver - 79
Phoenix - 72
Columbus - 75
But then we find another snag: Momentum.
In their last 10 games, Vancouver is a poor 2-6-1-1. Phoenix and Columbus are better, 5-2-0-3 for Phoenix and 6-4-0-0 for Columbus. That puts Vancouver at 76, Phoenix at 80, and Columbus at 78.
So in conclusion...we know nothing that we didn't know before I started writing this. However, it did help waste half an hour
Van - 7 GR, 72 pts (max 86)
Pho - 9 GR, 68 pts (max 86)
Cbs - 9 GR, 67 pts (max 85)
Nas - 6 GR, 66 pts (max 78)
LA - 8 GR, 62 pts (max 78)
The remaining games:
Van - @min, Dal, Ana, @ana, @pho, Pho, Edm
Pho - Ana, SJ, @sj, Chi, Cgy, Van, @la, @van, @col
Cbs - @stl, Col, Ott, @pit, Edm, @nj, Col, Buf, @chi
Nas - Ott, LA, Min, @dal, Col, @stl
LA - Edm, Nyi, @min, SJ, Pho, @sj, @ana
So the big games are likely April 2nd (Van @ Pho), and April 5th (Pho @ Van). It's too early to really analyse this, but within 2 sims the picture should be much clearer.
However, it's worth pointing out some other games. The top teams in the RHL right now are Stl, Buf, Atl, Cgy, NYI and Col. They all have more than 67.5% winning percentage. St. Louis hosts Nashville and Columbus, Buffalo travels to Columbus, Calgary goes to Phoenix, NYI goes to LA, and Colorado has 4 games - 1 at Nashville, 2 at Columbus and they host Phoenix once.
So against the top 6 teams, Columbus has 4 games, Nashville 2, Phoenix 2, Los Angeles 1, and Vancouver none. This could suggest Vancouver has the edge in games left, while Columbus (*gulp*) could have some difficulties.
Let's look at the two with the best chances. Vancouver's games look easier on paper. Minnesota (593), Dallas (393), Anaheim x2 (607), Phoenix x2 (466), Edmonton (399). Three relatively tough games, 2 relatively easy ones, and 2 key ones. This is part of why I think the games against Phoenix are so central to this playoff race. It could really decide who makes the playoffs, and who doesn't.
Phoenix's games are a bit tougher. Anaheim (607), San Jose x2 (635), Chicago (616), Calgary (696), Vancouver x2 (480), Los Angeles (419), Colorado (678). All of those games are tough, with 6 against playoff teams and 3 against teams in the hunt. The game against Los Angeles looks relatively easy, but the 2 against Vancouver will be tough, despite the low-ish winning percentage.
I guess I should look at my own games too, since I'm close. They seem all over the board though...St. Louis (730), Colorado x2 (678), Ottawa (486), Pittsburgh (365), Edmonton (399), New Jersey (419), Buffalo (713) and Chicago (616). So 2 games against 2 of the leagues 3 best, with 2 more against the 6th best, plus 10th best Chicago. But then, Pittsburgh, Edmonton, New Jersey and Ottawa are all below 500.
If we assume that all 3 teams somehow manage to go with the odds - losing to the teams above 600, beating teams under 500 and losing in OT/SHO against the teams from 500 to 600..oh, and we'll say Vancouver-Phoenix split their 2 games - then we end up with this finish:
Vancouver - 79
Phoenix - 72
Columbus - 75
But then we find another snag: Momentum.
In their last 10 games, Vancouver is a poor 2-6-1-1. Phoenix and Columbus are better, 5-2-0-3 for Phoenix and 6-4-0-0 for Columbus. That puts Vancouver at 76, Phoenix at 80, and Columbus at 78.
So in conclusion...we know nothing that we didn't know before I started writing this. However, it did help waste half an hour